Probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework: case study Adapazari, Turkey

Abstract While earthquakes can have a devastating impact on the economic growth and social welfare of earthquake prone regions, probabilistic seismic risk assessment be employed to assess mitigate such risks from future destructive events. In previous study (Sianko et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 18:2523–2555, 2020), hazard analysis (PSHA) tool based Monte-Carlo approach, was developed predict for high seismicity areas. this study, framework is incorporating previously PSHA tool, with vulnerability functions various damage criteria, exposures casualty models. Epistemic uncertainty addressed using logic trees distribution functions. The estimate human losses particular return periods an event-based stochastic procedure. applied case area, city Adapazari Turkey. Seismic carried out different identify most vulnerable areas city. verification performed by comparing predicted those observed during 1999 Kocaeli that severely affected Adapazari. results indicate while overall predictions extensive complete states demonstrate strong correlation data, accurate at district level are not achievable without microzonation studies.